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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 198.12

-5.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: dale_laroy who wrote (34124)	3/29/2001 9:44:10 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (2) of 275872

I anticipate that AMD will shift mobile Palomino production to SOI. I never thought of that. That well could be what IBM will fab. An SOI mobile Palomino chip in a .13um IBM SOI process could not be equaled by Intel (do we see a .13um mobile P4 on the horizon?). The .18um bulk mobile Palomino looks good against .18um bulk mobile P3s but may fall somewhat short against .13um mobile P3s. All AMD would have to do would be to re-map the .13um Palomino mobile design into a .13um SOI IBM process. Of course, this will take some time but it might be well underway all ready. The fortunate thing is they know the design is good and they must all ready have some performance and yield estimates on their own .13um bulk and SOI processes. This will make comparisons much easier. They must all ready have simulations based on running IBM's tuned global parameters in their model. Of course, they wouldn't have signed up for anything if they didn't see a good increase in performance. It also makes sense in terms of the numbers of chips IBM could supply. I would guess upwards of 1 million per quarter would be possible at .13um.. That would be a very good addition to whatever in roads .18um Palomino may have all ready made in the laptop market. Time frame?? It still seems very late in the game for IBM to get on board. I would guess nothing could come out of this until at least Q1 2002. But, who knows?? all speculation of course THE WATSONYOUTH

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