Thanks for responding. Do you like JNPR and at what price would you buy it? As a boomer with virtually all my retirement money in the stock market, these are scary times. (What retirement?) I'm not smart enough to understand why we're this low and still falling. With so much retirement money going into mutual funds and so much fund money on the sidelines waiting for the elusive bottom, will the recovery be fast once it finally begins?
I am one of the few but growing number of bears on this otherwise fine and unpoluted board. ggg
I wanted Greg to change the board name to "Greg's Den O bears" but instead he changed his name to Boplicity. Something must have gotten lost in the translation.
This is my take, and it is a simple one.
Cash is king.
There is not a single stock that I would consider for anything than a daytrade or a technical bounce. I absolutely would not hold any long positions overnight.
As to why this is: Growth has stalled and PEs are still absurd since there is no growth and no one knows when or in some cases IF that growth will EVER reurn. With all the fund outflows we have seen, I am not so positive about that sideline cash. A lot of it has totally been wasted IMHO propping up MU and MSFT for window dressing. Sad but true.
Will the recovery be fast? Who knows. I sort am leaning towards a U shaped or the dreaded L shaped bottom rather than a V shaped one. The bear rallies will be V shaped, but the final bottom will not, IMHO. This thought is based on historical data after major market tops.
Everyone has been trying to time the bottom. As you have seen it is just a wasted effort. As for JNPR, I think about $20. The clown thread will tell you single digits. I never thought I would see RMBS at 16 unless they lost the lawsuit. I have won quite a few bets here with people about how low some of these stocks will get. I may lose one I made on RMBS NOT breaking 15 (it sure came close). CIEN and CHKP will easily fall in half from here before it is all over IMHO. JNPR same story. Zeev has a rule on this: New lows beget new lows. Why do you want to be in stocks that keep making new lows?
Now lets assume for a moment that I am wrong. We rally 30% from here and I decide the bottom is in (2 very unlikely occurrances, I may be too stubborn for my own good). But if we start getting good news instead of "unknown visibility" and we stop getting 7 warnings from the same company, then I guess I will have to believe it.
At any rate trying to time JNPR buying at 110, 100, 75 or such has gotten one nothing but pain. If the bottom was in at 40, a 30% move would be getting back in 52. A 50% move would be getting back in at 60. Much better than riding this mess out, from 200, 150 or whatever. Whatever low we hit, will likely be retested anyway. So even if you miss the absolute bottom, there usually is a second chance retest.
So... While everyone else is so concerned about catching the bottom, I am doing my best to avoid the bottom.
The best way to avoid the bottom is cash.
M |
