By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, March 30, 2001 - 01:02 am: Edit
...My view hasn't changed much as I await to see if support holds or not for the rally this time or not. Either I have totally lost my edge or this market is doing a good job at confusing everyone. Tomorrow SHOULD be a day three down hard day yet it is the last day of window dressing so the funds should want it up.
Consumer earnings and spending will be released with expectations around .3 increase in both by the street. Of course I would imagine that spending will once again be higher than income.
I am still seeing a lot of basing in most stocks and the selling is still concentrated on the high PE stocks that unfortunately make up the most weight in most indexes. The darling stocks are now the unloved. Unfortunately I am running out of support lines for many of them and am going to have to extensively rework my charts soon if we don't bounce quick.
Don and I discussed longer term outlooks mostly and various areas of the world where things are weakest strongest etc. UNfortunately there aren't too many good longs and we both agree the semis and MSFT will be falling eventually. The problem is nailing before the bounce or after.
MU earnings tonight just caused confusion. The press is saying they beat expectations yet if you assume the analysts weren't counting in the shenanigans MU included, then they missed. Regardless, revenue from selling PC semis which was MU's bread and butter dropped from 1 1/2 to 1 Bil. That is a 30% haircut. Lets see Maria the MU ^*&) spin that positive tomorrow on CNBC.
Short on time as usual lately so no change in my outlook or game plan. Watching and waiting to see where we go short term. A few danger signs for you CTXS players. ADX is at bottom and the trend should reverse down now. Bond rates are topping thus I expect a rally in the bond which could be a bad omen for stocks. Gold as usual frustrates the gold fingers. No near support seen yet.
By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, March 30, 2001 - 08:21 am: Edit
With the futures up, I had to compute GLOBEX so it is now updated. Note it is upward biased with fair value around minus 4 thus we are set right now for a 10 point opening gap assuming the morning economic news doesn't move it big one way or the other.
Bloomberg has been throwing up end of quarter numbers for many stocks all morning. One theme I keep seeing is the ones that were first to drop have all seemed to rise about 50%. This on stocks like DELL, AAPL, CD etc. IF we get the bear rally in the NASDAQ/NDX soon, I imagine we could get something somewhat like that. With the NDX hanging around 1600, that would equate to around a 2400 level. Since I think we could get a washout scare first to around 1450, that wopuld put it right to my 2250 target that I have had all along. Of course this is only speculation and the complex weightings of various issues will change that a bit but still it is an interesting coincidence.
Until my 1450 is negated, I am not throwing oput my pop, drop rally scenario just yet although as I said, my confidence level is not high on it due to the end of month being over, upcoming taxes etc. Another concern I saw in last night's charts is the further breakdown of Berkshire Hathway. Until it turns up, I will stay fairly defensive.
In the FWIW ( For what it's worth) department, Japan closed it's books at 12999.70 last night. Hmmmmmmmm
Good Luck,
Lee |
