Hey Gang, no wonder Rajala has a field day with this thread. Being here is like being in a worrier’s haven. The "what IFs" take 10s of posts off into oblivion. Here's a dose of the real world, no "IFs" just facts. Stay the course my friends.
What is the biggest fear the CDMA2000 imposes to WCDMA? An open playing field. They want GSM all over again right? A small group of companies creating a standard that they and only they can swap IPR for a royalty wash and limit the competition. This has worked in the past and why not now? BECAUSE THE COMPETION NOW HAS A CHOICE! This scares the hell out of them. When CDMA2000 becomes a dominant player, competition will come out of the woodwork, making it very difficult for the NOKs of the world to take the "Lions Share". Have no doubt, Qualcomm's CDMA threatens to take the bread right of their plate. "Their" being the so called GSM cabal.... Was that created here?
Qualcomm has been extremely open in letting players in CDMA. That in itself has been the biggest success for Q spreading around the world. Q charges license fees and royalties. Sure why not, good business. Happens all the time. Why such a big deal now? Not that it's ever been published or any company signing a license contract could ever do so, the royal rate remains unknown but Q has said it's in the low single digits. (and btw, there been nothing out there but FUD on China getting lower royalty rates, just speculation, FUD). Well folks, the big deal is that CDMA is going to be in every country on this planet! Q stands to make a HEALTHY profit from it. Q has a lock on the heart of a technology that huge percentage of the earths population wants and is gonna want more once they get a taste. Has that ever happened in our history? No. Nothings been this big ($wise).
So that brings us to where we are today. Let's look around at the currents;
-Europe in big trouble having paid way too much for spectrum that they don't have a use for in the near future. And no, they can't put GSM/GPRS in that spectrum. It's dead until UTMS rolls around. Use CDMA2000? Now there's an IF for ya.
-Korea: The birthplace of the first 3G system on the planet. Everyone’s looking forward to July when LG can open the floodgates to 1X. Nobody questions the reason of why the Korean Gov put the restriction out in the first place. First it was phone sub cuts then a level playing field. What's next? Dunno. Korea is a big maybe until politics and big money lets go.
-US: 3 of the 5 are going CDMA2000. Real soon. Well that's gotta help.
-Australia: Ah hell, all BS and politics aside, we'll do it our self! Been Qs strategy all along, show the world it works and let the world see. Hard to throw mud on that one.
-China: Once they start writing checks (or should I say the vendors cashing them) for CDMA equipment, we'll have a better idea of when, not IF, when. China is going CDMA, they have to. More later.
-Japan: KDDI vs. NTT. Great! CDMAOne (for now) vs. NTT's version of WCDMA. Big Gov money against Q. Soon it will be show time. 65 days before the curtain goes up and NTT still only has plastic mockups for phones. Does anyone else see a problem with this? Do they even have a working phone the size of Nokia's refrigerator version? No way in hell will they have a commercial system within a few years. Nobody has been able to pull that one off. NOBODY! May is like Qualcomm announcing a commercial rollout of HDR at the PCS show two years ago.
-India: Lots of people. CDMA going in. Nobody cares. Q does. We'll see.
-LA: LA doesn't make any sense to me. Somebody else figure it out.
-Russia: Forget Russia. They're still partying over catching a guy with a GPS.
-Canada: They'll do whatever the US does.
GPRS: A buddy of mine came up with this one. GPRS, Good Pr Rotten System! Pretty funny huh? OK, here are the basics. For GPRS to get more throughput, they have to increase power to do so. More power, more battery, pissed off users. When they increase power and use up more time slots, they eat away at capacity. GPRS would be it's own demise if it was a success. The more popular it got, the less people could use it. GSM already has a major capacity problem. Like putting out of fire with gasoline. But anyway, it's coming, all 20Kbs of it, maybe. Why not, it's just a software upgrade.
When CDMA wants more throughput, they change the coding schemes (HDR) or take up more channels and combine. No more power. Battery usage the same. But it does eat way at capacity doesn't it. CDMA has a big advantage on capacity and 1X will almost double it. HDR is that solution. When data becomes big, voice/data systems are going to be in for a world of hurt. What is WCDMA’s solution?
Now China. China has never been big on IMPORTING. So why in the world would they like having GSM in there and not be able to produce any of the equipment? THEY DON'T! They want a piece of the pie. What has China contributed to the wireless industry? Notta. Dead last in the wireless race. Want to be first or close to it? Q supplies a solution. Not only a great system for their country, but how about manufacturing handsets and infrastructure? To themselves and the rest of the CDMA world? And Q will help them. Of course they will. The biggest market on the planet. Sure they will. We'll see how this one plays out in the next few months.
So from now till the end of the year the FUD will only get worse as the technologies are rolled out. Or maybe until mid next year. Who knows? But we all have the last chapter in that book, now we know the dates!
Exbenzive
Here's a few more from my buddy:
NTT DoDoMo, soon to be NTT DoNoMo! |
