Skeet, I guess I'd put the odds at about the same level - for many of the same reasons. Why is '29-'33 the period the only bear market today's most vocal bears choose to overlay charts? Because they wish it to be true, perhaps? Not that I think they are evil or even malicious, but this is one of those chances for doom and gloomers to be in the spotlight and those predicting the greatest calamity get the brightest spotlight.
Sure, we had a technology bubble, but we've had bubbles before and will have them again (hopefully/probably not any time soon) just as we'll have overreactions on the downside (like now, IMO). Perhaps some of the "leaders" even have farther to fall (CSCO to $10, anyone?). But, that doesn't mean there aren't good stocks worth buying today.
Like I've said before, there was a lot of money made in both value plays and emerging growth in the '70s, even though Polaroid and many other "Nifty Fifty" stocks never got back to their pre-'73 highs and even though the S&P didn't regain the '73-'74 lost ground until 1980.
Go for the alpha, not the beta. Don't buy the Naz, buy good companies at low prices - this is one of those rare chances to do so. And, for those who insist on worrying about the indexes, short/put them as a hedge. Buy the alpha, short the beta?
Regards,
Maj. Lemming |
