<we've seen little indication of anyone 'stepping up'.>
Well, Gabelli stepped up at higher prices and bought two million shares, and the stock was trading at his prices just a week ago. I've been tracking volume, and you are right it isn't especially high, as so far this looks like thin trading. We only just arrived at this sub-$1 level, so to answer your question, I guess we follow the money (volume). If we see couple a couple half million to million share days, that's a good clue. That's what I'm keying on to buy more of this play.
The notion that this is some kind of battle between noteholders and stockholders is highly questionable. Management fiduciary responsibility is to the first line owners: shareholders first. Their only obligation to noteholders is to make them whole (par), not deliver 90% of the company into their hands. I see the odds overwhelmingly favoring shareholder interest prevailing, and little evidence that some kind of noteholder conspiracy is in force. In fact the most conservative way to play this is to buy the notes. There is a 75% YTM before you get cashed out. Finally, put yourself in a noteholder's shoes: do you want $1,000 cash or 1200 shares of an 84 cents badly diluted stock that's been delisted? I'd take the former. smart noteholders are working towards the same ends as the shareholders. |
