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To: American Spirit who wrote (49977)	3/30/2001 1:04:41 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) of 57584

Thanks Spirit on Telecoms. But here is an opposing view that I find interesting and informative. . . an email from a lurker: Just a lurker here but: Telco problem right now is filling up the capacity they have already. 9% of VZ business is Data and they are projecting that to grow to 16% by 2003. The Fiber is for the most part already there waiting to be used. While traditional Telcom is 59% now and projected to be 45% in 2003. Consider T buying Northpoint, the only reason they are buying the assets is because they are cheap. For all the hype last year of Data centers and the latest Optical Technology, the truth now is that this equipment can be bought for 50 cents on the dollar. And underneath all that is the question of why ATT doesn't want the 100,000 customers who are now without DSL service? Broadband 500 hundred channels and all that is in the future but the future is not now. This transition is not going to happen over night. Already people are questioning the ability of the private and public sectors to be prepared for the transition to HDTV in 2006. I think all this is going to take much longer than most people think. Is there really a market for all of this? Just consider that I have a 19 inch TV and no cable service right now. If HDTV is coming in say 2006 why would I buy a new TV between now and then? Or consider that I have a Pentium 2 computer and DSL service right now is there any reason for me to upgrade this equipment? No. Do I see a need in the near future? No. What about 3G wireless? For the last 6 years or so the wireless market has been the fasting growing part of the telecom industry, but now we have reached the point where new customers just are not adding much to the bottom line. Besides the spectrum problems ( the military uses this spectrum now) and the cost (many people are questioning the need to incur more debt here......it is interesting that the Bush budget projections moved the sale of this spectrum back a few years and increased the cost.....fuzzy math) is the more fundamental problem of who needs it. It is like the commercial on TV about the two guys mountain climbing and stopping to watch some soap opera, it is a joke. John Malone. Has this guy ever made any money? He may be a master at using cash flow to justify debt and a master of unlocking value by spinning off companies but the biggest problem ATT has now is the debt they incurred buying up Mr Malone's negative assets. What is next? Mr Malone is going to part ways with ATT, leave the debt behind and get the IRS to rule that he can have the money he has made without having to pay taxes on it. Personally I think the shareholders of T should be suing the management for the mess they have made of this company.

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