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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Razorbak who wrote (2646)	3/30/2001 10:47:04 PM
From: Second_Titan	Read Replies (1) of 23153

John for the most part NG shoulder season is priced in IMO, with the two significant variables looming. Summer weather and the arrival of the long awaited supply response. Razor Have Faith, the US consumer will spend if credit is available and interest rates are dropping like prices at a Kmart blue light special. I suspect allot of companies who got smoked by not being able to hire qualified people will be reluctant to cut recklessly people they struggled to obtain and develop. As long as people are working and can get credit they will spend. Allot of consumers cannot even differentiate Japan from the Philippines on the map. So all these external issues scaring the hell out of gold bugs wont stop the use of Plastic. Overall macro issues seem likely to keep a cap on OSX for the time being. Since it seems big money elephants like to binge in the patch and routinely purge in a violent manner I will have to learn to trade an even larger % of my holdings. If the supply response in NG does not materialize in a significant way over the next 3-5 months, that combined with gasoline supply problems and weak earnings in most other sectors could set a fire to the OSX & NG plays.

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