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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting

QCOM 174.01

-0.3%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: DaveMG who wrote (9324)	3/31/2001 12:20:06 AM
From: JGoren	Read Replies (1) of 196654

absolutely superb article Dave. thanks. i learned a lot. thestreet.com We really need to discuss how the scenario impacts Qcom and spinco. It seems to me that our fearless leader, Ramsey, was right to be very concerned over the cost of spectrum. I was very surprised to learn that spectrum cost and infra cost are about equal. Obviously, capital spending to build out networks will slow substantially. That has little impact on Spinco, because there are few chips that go into infra. But, the royalty impact on Classic Q could be substantial. On the other hand, the carriers will have to look carefully at the cost of their systems. If I were a carrier I would look to jettison my expensive spectrum and utilize what I have better--great for Qcom. Forgetting 3G for a moment, 1x would seem the way to go. It increases capacity; it allows the carrier to put more subs on existing spectrum, it allows more profitable services to be added and increases the profitability, which can go to reduce debt. Qcom's statements at the annual meeting that carriers in Europe may want to go 1x on their existing spectrum makes a lot of sense. Why, then, do we see so much effort and verbiage being directed at the need for spectrum (as well as the need for adjustment in price)? What I would love to see from Qcom or someone else is an analysis of the cost of 1x tied to expected increases in subs and revenues from those subs in a way that shows how the carriers can grow and pay off their existing debt. What we have seen so far is a comparison of the cost of transmitting data. If the guy is correct that a bunch of bankruptcies loom down the road in 2003-04, the whole telecom market is gonna continue to suffer for five years.

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