I think the direction of your picks is right on. I am more and more concerned that telecom spending will stay depressed. If this is so, csco, lu, vtss, amcc, brcm, glw, jdsu, jnpr, vrta, etc, stay way down. Sure we could have huge swing rallies, but I am thinking they can't stick because the demand for these products won't be there.
Frankly, I stepped into a horrible trap as I thought the telecoms would grow themselves out of the debt they took on. So piled into the telecom equipment makers more and more resulting in me giving back gains achieved from 4/99-2/2000 in the last 13 months. In a slow economy, I think equip spending doesn't ramp, and telecom debt acts as a further depressant.
There are other games to play anyway. Imnx gets hammered one day; axp slides to a pe of 18, mrk sells off 30 points in 2 months; maybe consumer spending will be ok, but telecom spending will continue to suffer(my view).
Everything will bounce when a bounce occurs, but that may be a good oportunity to trim back on some of the tech areas that will take years to get back to a decent pace of revenue growth.
What % of the disc drive pc market do these two companies have? |
