Either we made a major bottom on March 22nd, or we did not. I continue to follow the latter view, but the s/t trend right now suggests the former.
Of course, it's a short-term trend, easily changed, so my mind continues to favor a new low, below March 22nd. In other words, my Preferred series from the past few weeks retains its hold on my "most likely" slot.
But the trip to new all-time lows is unlikely to be smooth, or simple. Here's what I see.
The market should poke a hole higher early on Monday, and then start a reversal which fails to reach new lows (how's that for devious?). The market then goes higher, BEFORE the new round of failure appears. A classic tree-shaking ceremony heading north, loaded with bear scares, extending into the second week of April.
Then, just when the bulls get comfortable travelling north ... whoops ... derailment. By the first week of May, we're mired in the quicksand of new lows. The bears wax ecstatic. Until they realize it IS quicksand. And they're standing in it.
The big money finally puts in a bottom. Once the index tags 1030.00 Spoos in early May, they light the fuse. No new all-time highs, of course, because this remains a grinding bear market. But a nice balloon trip into October.
Hmmm. October. Where and what have we all heard about that month before? Here's my current 150-min bar chart ... 3+ months of crystal ball gazing that can always break into a steady diet of broken glass. sellnow.net
My Alternate Series DID establish a major bottom on March 22nd. The series remains structurally sound, imo. Of course, if validated, it is not THE bottom of this long-term, grinding bear market. That might be a few years in the making.
But right now, with this series (which I am NOT using as my roadmap), we continue to set up a launching pad to higher prices. The rocket site is not yet complete, however. The battered bulls need to feel the psychological pain of yet another stomach-lurching swing south. But that move will NOT bust the lows of March 22nd.
And once the market players recognize that as a major bottom, they will push prices relentlessly higher into the autumn. There will be one painful plunge south between now and then, but the move higher should last through September, and into the month with a reputation for slaughtering bulls ... October. Here's my current 150-min bar chart for this series ... sellnow.net |
