Dr. D/Jubimer; please take the following as constructive criticism (while I totally demolish your reasoning with glee -- sorry, just a joke) -- you asked for feedback!
1) Total potential viewers = 20,000,000
2) 40% of total viewers likely to watch streaming video
3) Of those, 33 1/3% are likely to watch inextv's streaming video
Leave 1-3 as is (that gives us @2,500,000 viewers).
4) Each viewer is likely to watch 3 video segments/day
I think 4 is going to prove to be way off the mark. I think the error begins with the statement "each viewer", and ends with "/day". I think the much more likely scenario is that some very small percentage of the 33% are likely to watch on any given day; and that they will likely watch less than one entire video clip each. I don't think the content justifies even the assumption that a small percentage are likely to watch on a regular basis one video per day -- the content is not changing that frequently and we are not talking about compelling programming here.
If I had to come up with a figure for daily viewers I would go with 5% of potential viewers, or 125000/day.
5) Each viewer watches 5 days/week instead of 7 days/week
Five is covered above. Where is there any content one will watch every day? People are not going around to these sites looking for the iNEXTV segments they have not yet seen. What you have with these partners is a huge audience made up of smaller audiences; we send a stream to the car-tinkerer's group, this in no way touches the entire audience of our partner; and then you need to consider how those who visit specialty sites are interested in the content and the forums. Most are likely to view the stream from iNEXTV once; only a small percentage of those are likely to return for more.
6) Each streaming video segment is 3 minutes in length
7) 90% of streams are Narrow Band, 10% are Broad Band
90% of users may be narrow band, but I suggest that narrow band users are not streaming video watchers. I would suggest that the split in terms of viewers is more likely to be 50/50 or even more off balance in favor of broadband users.
At 50/50 that brings daily revenues to:
NB: $3281; BB: $6093; Total: $9347
Give this the seven days a week treatment for weekly revenue of: $65000
Monthly: $260,000
Quarterly: $780,000
Annual: $3,120,000
Using your:
8) Rates are based on per thousand (000) streams
9) Rates: $35/(000) NB, and $65/(000)BB - WAG
10) Revenue Split: 75% iNEXTV (25% Branding Partners)
Finally, this model does not seem to me to be reflecting the real situation, which is that iNEXTV is going to be paid not for segment viewers, but per streaming ad per segment viewer. My bet is that there will very quickly turn out to be certain types of content that prove to be attracting the ads, and that these will be as fickle as TV programming is at present. I also suggest that those placing ads will soon be screaming for ways to measure results (now click-throughs), which is a potential source of extreme danger given the clear lack of connection to the real world of our Management.
Given good content, I would suggest two to three ads per viewable segment, or a potential triple of the amount in your model as I revised it, or @$9,000,000.
Clearly if the way I see it is even close to the mark, something more must be done here.
More potential viewers; blockbuster events; a content-savvy partner (say, AOL/TimeWarner); cost-sharing content production
mo
PS: I mentioned this before: I have a dozen stocks bookmarked here. Day after day AXC is the only one with a message on it. I can't see this lasting much longer this way.
mo |
