No need to fear a biotech-friendly TSCM yet, though I hope we'll see more balance. A couple of recent articles show that they're still trying to prick the "biotech bubble."
(Re Greenberg: He has had some big wins, though the Nasdaq has been a feast for almost any short for the last year or so. The five years before that were considerably leaner. Greenberg hasn't seemed to attack biotech much lately, he's aimed at high-tech and telecom, where a genuine bubble based on massive over-borrowing and over-investment has occurred, as delineated in the excellent Ravi Suria interview referred to by Peter in post #3232.)
The two 'TSCM-standard' anti-biotech articles were:
thestreet.com
Biotech Funds Follow the Ugly Script of Tech Funds
By Ian McDonald
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thestreet.com
Biotech Feels the Nasdaq's Chill, and Its Multiples Are Shriveling
By Adam Feuerstein
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Though ostensibly completely independent, both articles were released within a few minutes of 10:30 am on March 27, when the days's opening news has been digested, trading is winding down, a good time to try to get the market's attention.
They featured much of the usual stuff, e.g. Morningstar analyst Emily Hall: "I think the main problem with biotech heading into this year is that the stocks were just very overvalued and that's very dangerous."
My personal biotech portfolio wasn't feeling massively overvalued as we headed into this year, but I suppose that's a judgement call.
What I found odd is that two articles about the decline in biotech could fail to mention one of the most remarkable plunge and rebound sequences that I expect the market has ever seen. In the five trading days before the articles appeared, the BTK Index (TSCM's favorite) crashed 24% and then shot back up more than 20%.
How do you write an article about the fall of biotech and not mention that extraordinary turnaround-Thursday? Rick has noted that when TSCM talks about the high valuations in biotech they ignore the fact that it's the Amgens, Genzymes... that have kept most of their value, and that companies below this almost-pharma-class have been crushed.
My feeling is that these small companies bounced back even better than BTK, but all the indexes are Cap-weighted so its hard to quantify.
When you ignore basic facts like these you're writing propaganda for shorts, not news.
In a market where it's been hard not to lose money, TSCM believers missed out on a terrific opportunity for profit, for the brave and dry-powdered.
Finally, it was sure nice to see some solid pops on Friday and earlier. Haven't seen that since ... - nah, those days are not coming back soon. But maybe we can get some more realistic valuations in a vibrant, solidly financed sector where brilliant and vital work is being done.
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