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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (44882)	4/1/2001 12:59:17 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Weekend comment from a former legend in his own mind--ME! Look for cisco warning that impacts in after hours but not the next day leading to a rally in tech--Lets call it a bear market snap back rally. The interest of the fed and the Bush administration is not to have a failed nasdaq rally--a couple of hundred points up and the another fall back would be a another disaster. I am hoping for the Cisco warning to be followed quickly by an intermeeting rate cut of 3/4% to finally put the fed ahead of the rate curve. I also am expecting Bush to go along with the Democrat plan for $300/head back to the taxpayers immediately. That should solidify the rally and give us a sharply up quarter and some better consumer confidence. In the end, the Bears will begin one last try to bring down the markets and from their failure later this year/early next a new bull market will be born based on the end of an extended inventory correction and the beginning of a manageable boom in tech. I would think large cap stocks such as amat and csco will do very well in the first leg(snapback rally). At the end of 2000, i owned BMC a stock that had fallen to 14. In January it more than doubled because the mainframe market that it supplies software for finally came back to life. Computer Associates did pretty much the same thing. This time around it will be large cap stocks like csco, amat, intc, txn leading the pack. It would not surprise me to see cisco back in the 30's or amat at 80 or intc at 50. Think of the short squeeze!! The arrogant shorts will suffer the same fate as the arrogant longs(me included) did last year. Perhaps after the snapback phase it may be a time to sell, or use the option techniques of many on this thread because in my scenario for bmc eventually the 100% january move gave way to a 50% correction back to 20. Good luck to all the good folks on this thread. I would be interested in your comments. MIke

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