Analysis - Sunday, April 1, 2001 7 pm
On Friday the Dow closed up 79 points at 9878.78. The
Gann 3-Day Chart could have turned down on Friday, and if it
had, it would have signaled that an even stronger decline was
coming early this week. The 3-Day Chart did not turn down on
Friday. This suggests that even if we see a decline early in
the week, we should still see higher prices before this week
is out. We believe the rally we expect this week should carry
the Dow above 9961 on a print basis and 10013 intraday. While
we think those levels will be exceeded, we do not believe they
will be dramtically exceeded before the Dow turns back down
again. We still believe that any rally this week will be
followed by another strong decline, a decline which could
ultimately see the Dow test the March 22 lows of 9106 on a
print basis and 9047 intraday. Do keep in mind that we
ultimately expect the Dow to fall well below both of the
above levels before this Bear Market is over later this year.
However, it may take some time before those two levels in the
Dow are actually broken, even if, as we expect, another very
serious decline comes in over the next few weeks.
We told you last week that any decline below 1794 in the
Nasdaq would generate a new sell signal off the Gann Weekly
Chart. The Nasdaq reached a low on Friday of 1794.30, holding
within a fraction of a point above our 1794. The Nasdaq then
rallied back into the close. Now if the Nasdaq falls below
1794 at anytime this week, that sell signal will still be
given. It will mean that an even stronger decline is
coming, at least short term, in the Nasdaq.
If we are correct about a further rally in the Dow this
week, we believe that rally could take the Dow just above
10000. However we doubt the Dow will be able to move
significantly above that level before the next leg down
begins.
Let's briefly discuss the Cycles forecast for the month
of April. Technically the Cycles call for the next short-term
high near April 5, plus or minus 1 day, and then a low near
April 9, plus or minus 1 day. Another high is due near April
19, plus or minus 1 day, and then a short-term low near April
23, plus or minus 1 day.
The Bradley calls for a high near April 9, plus or minus 2
days. However, the forecast from the Bradley and the forecast
from the Cycles differ for this time frame. We believe an
inversion in the Bradley is probable for the first week of
April, with a low coming in near April 9, plus or minus 2 days
instead of a high. The Bradley calls for a low near April
27, plus or minus 2 days, and a high near May 16, plus or minus
2 days.
For this week, if the Dow exceeds 9961 on a print basis
and 10013 intraday, the Weekly Chart will turn up. If this
occurs, it will not in itself produce a new buy signal but it
will suggest that somewhat higher prices are coming short
term. If the Dow exceeds both of those levels, and then at any
time falls below 9509 on a print basis, and more importantly,
9489 intraday, the Weekly Chart will turn back down. This
would signal that a far more serious decline is coming short
term, a decline which could ultimately test the March 22 lows
of 9106 on a print basis and 9047 intraday.
Our bottom line is that whether or not we see any further
rally over the next few weeks, we believe that much lower
prices are coming this year. We want you to hold current
positions for now until we give you new instructions. |
