Sharck, Tom Hua, Paul A & All: Opinions on ARTG, please. Short???
Art Technology Group has been acting awfully weak lately and plunged 19.33% Friday alone to a new low of $12 on volume of 10 million shares. No news releases, but the sector has been hit with downgrades galore, earnings warnings, free-falling stocks, etc., so scuttlebut seems to be thinking that ARTG will either warn or miss their number. Concensus EPS estimates are for 11 cents the third week of April.
Anyone with thoughts on which way ARTG may be headed? On the surface, it appears the company is sound, solid and strong fundamentally...a leading technology, profitable, good balance sheet and lots of cash. Technically, however, ARTG is a wreck! On Balance Volume has been steadily downtrending since right after its January earnings report, and the slope of descent keeps steepening, now representing a cliff-like pattern! Two weeks ago, the Stochastics (15-5-5) were scraping bottom and when they turned upward, ARTG rallied from $14 to low $20s. The stock was lower every day this past week, although the fast stochastic just crossed below the slow line on Thursday when the stock fell from $17 to just under $15. Fast stoch. is still at about 20. RSI is a hair under 30 and has been plunging, but MACD (12-25-9) and Money Flow only now have begun declining again.
Sooo, what do we think? Is ARTG a disaster dejour about to happen? Or, could this past week's action be the *Special Effects* of portfolio managers shuffling their ARTG positions, dumping it mercilessly only to race right back in next week? Valuation-wise, one can argue that ARTG is reasonably compelling at current $12 prices, assuming they meet the 11-cent projection. Something just doesn't seem right though the way the stock is (mis)behaving, so I'm inclined to the opinion that ARTG could be an ideal S.O.S. candidate--Short On Strength--on any move higher (if it does rebound), and ESP. so in the $14-$16 area. Yes? No? Anybody think single digits are coming for ARTG? Thanks in advance for all commentary! |
