John, the article by Rhonda is typical of the coverage she provides for small cap stocks. Her track record is just so so because of the lack of depth in her coverage. For example, the key issue, which she didn't even touch, is whether SNDK has proprietary technology, and if so, whether that technology is sufficient to give SNDK a competitive edge in non-volatile information storage technology.
I don't think anyone on this thread, including me, knows the answer, but it seems that because of SanDisk's strong financial position and the fact that it is capable of making a profit, SNDK is probably better situated than any other company to make significant profits from removable (as opposed to embedded) flash memory. As for Toshiba, Hitachi, and other competitors, even if they make profits from flash memories, the significance in relation to their other lines of business would be miniscule.
As to the stock itself, it is so undervalued that even a couple of points contributed by the BARRON'S article would hardly make any difference. Even in this depressed market, and even assuming momentary earnings downturns for SNDK in its next two quarterly statements, the stock in my view should be selling close to 70. A level of 70, still less than half its highest point last year, would be in line with other technology companies that are (1) relatively young, (2) making a profit and showing positive cash flow, and (3) in a market niche where growth in demand is almost doubling every year. |
