So, you are interested in what my thought are going forward...
Contrary to popular belief, I do not think that the internet is dead. Quite the opposite, I think that it is still very young with the biggest growth still in front of it. BUT, to borrow from your pal, the Gilded one, I think that the internet was/is one of those disruptive technologies. And the area that it disrupted was the telecom industry. The ILECs didn't have any choice but to build out their network or the CLECs would have trounced all over them. It was one of those no-win situations. In order to survive in the short term, they had to offer services at a loss and take on lots of debt to build out the infrastructure. And the real pisser is that the last mile stuff that they built out (DSL) is only a short term stop-gap solution. There is no way for the ILECs to recoup their investment. And, the Internet at 384K doesn't really offer much more of an opportunity for the service provider to charge for differentiated services. At 10Mbps you start to see some opportunities, but at 100Mbps, the service providers can offer services that actually make a difference in how we operate our lives.
So who else was building out their data communications infrastructure, who also has last mile access and did not have their cashflow hit? Cable operators. They are best positioned (IMO) to move forward and deploy fiber to the home. And in the case of AOL, they have all kinds of content from TWX.
So, for my first picks...AOL in the low 30s and ADLAC in the mid 20s, CHTR in the mid teens.
AOL
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ADLAC
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CHTR
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I like these for longer term positions and I don't necessarily think that this is the best time to buy them. ADLAC looks like a great short on the chart, but I am not going there right now.
I also think that mobile wireless has a significant play.
For the wireless infrastructure, I like ERICY.
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For semis to support the above:
TQNT (current PE around 17)
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A little bit of that ReeFerMaDness (right here right now)
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PMCS (not yet)
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AMCC (wait for a base)
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I also like WCOM, they have their fingers in a lot of different pots.
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Again, this is a watch list. Looking at some of these charts, it is obvious that the time isn't right to dive in.
There are some obvious omissions that would be implied from this starting point, I will endeavor to fill them in as I go along.
JXM |
