I think the time has passed for fed intervention to have any effect on nascent tech companies. There was breath left even until the last few days but I think it is clearly over now. Clearly.
IMHO, i think a decent plan from here is to avoid the entire telcom and telecom equip area, except for those that would benefit from spending in the metro core, and to pick survivors in the remaing segments. My tech list has become cien, cpq, glw, emc, brcd, chkp, emlx, jdsu, ntap, sebl, vrsn, pwer,flex, amat, vrts, atml, qcom, jnpr, sunw, beas, itwo,nvls, nok, imnx, amgn, ebay, and yhoo. Some are still expensive, and some of these may be in trouble, even from here. There are others that may be ok, but there is no way that even 20% of the companies that have gone public since 1997 will be around in 2years. It's too late. They have been decapitated by the equity markets and the fed.
It is a total mystery to me why the fed has done this but I am certain it was purposeful. Tyhe only thing to do is to make the best possible decsions from this moment on.
I do think the feds actions aren't too late to have non techs do well...the consumer won't be in great shape but we won't meltdown. But huge numbers of techs won't even get back to there end of January 2001 price within years. |
