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Pastimes : Trading the markets.....

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (4247)	4/2/2001 8:28:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 4583

Hi GZ, A secret message from insiders - or it's falling so fast a Pentium 4 can't keep up with it. I was just studying the Naz 100 on TC 2000- It is so oversold on a weekly basis that it has never in it's history been this low. If you like buying when every one is selling YOU'LL LOVE THIS WEEK. The S&P 500 is at a do or die - but I actually think 3/22 was the low - so that means a retest to BELOW 1081.19 on the S&P must occur,at the same time the Naz 100 breaks 1500. -It will be the straw that spikes VIX up and sends wealthy investors to the put sellers looking for insurance which of course will be priced at a premium price. We will have a complete washout in prices as there will be no buyers as the sellers panic.This is the trading world's equivalent to a vacuum. The term MAX PAIN will be personified by Mr. Market. The long gradual decline that has erased hope will ultimately be resolved by "I don't care at what price - Get me out" It will be echoed millions - all at the same time!! The personification of volatility - at a peak in a maximum decline!! The key to playing this time period, will be GTC orders at shocking low values. They will fill with lightning speed because one thing you know for sure the Market Maker won't be risking his money to help you get out.He will process a sell when and only when he has a buy order on the books. The completion of the buy order will shock past holders creating a cascading of scared (and forced) margin holders. This process will carry over at least 2 days.Then the greatest of all elations will occur. A huge reversal day that makes the price swings of the past 2 days look like chicken little.That's because the shorts will know they've been greedy.They are after all the better traders - but they succumb to greed as well. Especially when there is a breed of new shorters who quite confidently believe all stocks are going to zero.They will have to compete with their big brothers the institutions - who's buy programs just kicked in. This is what O'Neill calls a follow-thru day. Just a few of them are really effective - the ones that occur after long term historical trends are simultaneously broken are in deed " THE BIG KAHUNAS". I have suffered thru these several times in my life and at each occasion I've always said " If only I had some fresh cash!!!". That's where current investors "HAVE TO TAKE HEART". The big boys do have fresh cash - Joe 6 Pack plugs his monthly IRA in like clock work. Especially at the end of the month- just in time for the next month's buys.Then it even works better if it happens at the end of a Qtr - cause many companies have there prewarning confessions to make.It sets up maximum value for fresh cash AND YES IT WILL HAPPEN. Ever wonder why October 8,1998 was the turn for the last great rally - end of prewarnings(super negative news emphasis with no end in sight) and institutions with fresh cash are: this humble traders suspicions. I don't think the assets of Corporate America have disappeared by 65%.Just the price of their associated stock. If you told America they could buy gas for 70 cents a gallon you'd have a run on all gas stations.Give investors new lows on stocks and they get insecure and crawl in their shell.I really don't know why value creates fear but it does and those who have the confidence to buy in the face of fear are destined to enjoy the extra nice things of life that are forfeited by the weak and insecure holders of equities. One man's garbage is another man's jewel - go figure. Mr Market do me a favor - PUSH THE LEMMS OVER THE CLIFF !! I'm planning on being on the beach and catching their stocks just before they smack the water. It's not pretty - but I've seen it enough to know - it's happening and I think it's REAL SOON. MAYBE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY I guess that area where you catch those low priced bargains should be called "GROUND ZERO" right at the bottom. HEHEHE MY DRY POWDER FIRES AT A VIX ABOVE 50 AND PUT TO CALL RATIO OVER 1.1 TO 1. After that I'll be patient - work my day job - and get real close to studying those Hatteras plans if I have a spare moment. Better put on your PFD I see a water spout comin. Bob

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