FWIW MSFT is in a lot better shape than CSCO, although I would not buy either here. MSFT was/is able to generate cash flow internally, CSCO is not. It had to BUY growth, often paying 10x what companies were worth. It morgtaged its future at the expense of shareholders' and now it looks like the bet will cost them dearly. IMHO, CSCO is 2000's answer to RCA of 1929.
As far as the recovery coming before the good news, yes that's true. But companies have just begun to lay off; housing prices are still going up - albeit just barely. In addition, we're not even close to capitulation. Idiots are up big time since the 1991 breakout and "long-termers" aren't gonna quit now as long as Wall St, CNBS, and pundits keep letting them know that they should invest for the "long-term."
This isn't the end, it's not even the middle. I might start changing my attitudes if I see a VIX above 100, Santa Clara and Manhattan high end housing prices down 50%+, a couple of articles stating the end of technology, the flaws of US organizational structure, MBA's applying for checkout jobs at Tower Records, and how fixed income is such a great investment.
When I made my prediction of 2900 back in early April 2000, I put the caveat to many people that this is only the BEGINNING, not the end. As I have educated myself on the subject, my predictions have lowered to what I feel are conservative estimates of where the markets should be: 800 Nasdaq, 4000 Dow. Off the record, my estimates are actually lower.
I have positioned my portfolio to be successful in the coming turmoil that will spell some of the biggest societal ramifications this country has seen since FDR and I hope everybody here does so too. |
