Wave considerations April 2, 2001
Between working and trying to put in a few days skiing I did not have much time for the markets... However, the puzzle is not going away, and, I guess, never will. Looks like Hochberg somewhere along the way changed his wave count, and counts the current decline as wave 5, at the same degree as March- May (1), May-Sept. (2) and Sept-Jan. (3). The January rally got promoted to (4). Previously, he counted the January rally as 4 of 3, and the current decline as 5 of 3. I suspected that this would turn out to be the case.
It would seem that after all this mayhem is over, we should see an A-B-C (at least) to correct all the Bear's achievements up to date. This rally should be fully tradable, or even "investable". The trick is, how to time the entry; I already started a bit too early ;-(
A cathartic event, a 'capitulation', if you will, would clear the field. As far as wave structures are concerned, it looks like you have to look at an index where the count can be seen better, probably the DOW. Looks like the wave count in the DOW is one step behind the NAZ, and now it is "working" on it's 4 of 3. Very soon it should collapse into the 5 of 3, and, after that happens, the commencement of the larger degree (4) in the DOW should coincide with the beginning of the A-B-C in the NAZ.
AK |
