Some more uplifting news...
Siebel CEO Predicts Business-To-Business 'Carnage'
By Anne Brady
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. (Dow Jones)--The founder and chief executive of Siebel Systems Inc. (SEBL) used the "R" word repeatedly and unabashedly Monday.
"What we're experiencing is a global economic recession," Tom Siebel said in a presentation at the Forrester Research business-to-business technology forum at the Phoenician Resort here.
"This economy changed at a rate nobody could have anticipated," Siebel said.
"I have never seen anything like this in my career. ... Any company that can meet revenue projections in this environment, I have the utmost respect for them."
Siebel didn't update earnings projections for his own software company, which is scheduled to announce quarterly earnings later this month.
In the business-to-business sector, Siebel predicted "incredible carnage" over the next year.
"In the B-to-B exchange area, I don't think anybody survives," Siebel said.
However, Siebel predicted "a very, very exciting time" after the dust clears and the economy enters an up-cycle in a couple years. He predicted that the Nasdaq would hit 10000 in 2005.
"Right now, the market is overcorrecting itself," Siebel said.
Alfred Berkeley, vice chairman of the board of the Nasdaq, likewise cautioned investors against overreacting to rapid, random movement of stock prices brought on by the trading of speculators.
"In my opinion, the only way to play successfully every time is to be an investor," Berkeley said. "If you're an investor, you place a bet today and you wait years to see if it pays out."
Speaking at an Economic Club of Phoenix event at the same resort, Berkeley said he personally has "a difficult time investing in anything today" because it has been five years since he worked as an analyst and banker.
"I feel naked in terms of information on fundamentals," he said. With so much news about daily stock movements and earnings variations, it can be "very difficult emotional work to stick" with stocks even after doing research, he
said.
"The voice (of the media) is saying, 'Be concerned about random movement of Cisco's stock price,' " Berkeley said. "If you're an investor, you'd better understand this is really hard work."
Speaking with Dow Jones Newswires after his speech, Berkeley declined to comment on Siebel's predictions, but he agreed we are experiencing "a confluence of product cycles and economic cycles." |
