Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 248.09

+6.2%

10:34 AM EST

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To: Joe NYC who wrote (34632)	4/2/2001 11:54:19 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (2) of 275872

"How likely is any of this (or all of this) to happen. I may be paranoid, but I always in the back of my mind expect the other shoe to drop." "I am wondering what is it that is going to prevent AMD from having a great Q2. There is always something. I guess possible dangers are:" "- overall demand collapses like it did in Q4" Not a significant danger, even if it occurs. "- flash may be extremely week and will offset any potential gains in the CPU market" Possible. Contract sales can be cancelled. "- notebook entry arrives too late to make any difference" Very likely, but this probably would not be enough to cause a weak quarter. "- 1.7 GHz released early in the quarter and P4 catches on" Not likely cause a problem unless AMD makes unnecessary price cuts. "- Intel fights like hell, starts a price war, matches and undercuts AMD's prices" A real potential danger, but only if AMD responds to Intel price cuts. Intel will not have sufficient volumes of P4 to be able to engage in a price war at this level. Nor will they have sufficient quantities of Tualatin to pose a significant threat, even if the desktop variant is released. This means that Intel's price war would be restricted to 0.18-micron P-III and Celeron processors. With Athlon spanning from 1.0 to 1.333 (and possibly up to 1.467) GHz, 0.180-micron P-III can't touch Athlon, and for Intel to engage in a price war of P-III versus Duron would be suicidal.

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