> "- overall demand collapses like it did in Q4"
> Not a significant danger, even if it occurs.
I think it's more of a danger than you'd think. If it happens, that is. Luckily, it's just possible that AMD might have underestimated their shipment numbers for Q1, and they might be smart enough to do the same for Q2, so that particular danger may be averted.
> "- flash may be extremely week and will offset any
> potential gains in the CPU market"
> Possible. Contract sales can be cancelled.
I think you may overestimate the possibilities here. First off, AMD gets a breach penalty payment if this happens. Secondly, I suspect that cancellations would be managed ahead of time by a number of weeks (eg, the customer couldn't suddenly say "Hey, remember those six million ICs you just shipped out to us? Well, we've changed our minds, so we'll reroute it all back to you, free of charge"). Hmmm, now that I think about it, isn't AMD required to announce news that would materially affect the company and stock? Wouldn't a contract cancellation fall under this category?
> "- notebook entry arrives too late to make any difference"
> Very likely, but this probably would not be enough to cause a weak quarter.
If AMD is smart, then they'll give their financial estimates with the assumption of no new mobile products. |
