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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: Telemarker who wrote (2717)4/3/2001 1:16:42 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Sure looks like things have gotten somewhat ugly, and that the rotation game may have ended.

The rotation game is still being played. Take a look at Alcoa and many of the chemical companies over the past 4-6 months. The railroads over the past year. Areas in the health industry have been doing very nicely over the past year (some decent 52 week% gains on this list): siliconinvestor.com

There are ways to play this market on the long side even during bear markets. The main reason we don't hear much about the sectors that are in rebound or bull mode is "the street's" tunnel vision at anything associated with the electronic (and lately optical) industries (semis, computers, phones, etc...).

Where one thinks we are in the economic cycle should dictate where money should be put to work if one wants to take advantage of the current environment. I've seen some discussion on the inverted bond yield curve signaling a sharp slowdown or recession. The reversal is an indicator that suggests the rebound isn't too far off. If this is the case, one needs to focus on the sectors that have traditionally done well coming out of a recession. Somewhere I have a link that shows the economic cycle and the industries that perform the best during each phase and if I find it I'll post the link here. By taking into consideration the variables that are exerting pressure on the current downturn (high utility and petroleum/ng prices are one strong factor), we should be able to identify areas of 'short term' potential. If memory serves me, the Airlines are one area that should do well once we have bottomed out and the rebound is in full gear.
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