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Gold/Mining/Energy : Bearcat (BEA-C) & Stampede (STF-C)
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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (2167)4/3/2001 4:17:40 AM
From: TANTRAMAR  Read Replies (1) of 2306
 
Its late at night and I may not be thinking straight but I believe Fortune is only earning 50% of two wells. Normally gas well spacing does not get much smaller than about one well per 1/4 section. I think the south pool near Hartell is about 5.5 sections in area. So we may have given up the following percentage of the area of the south pool: (50%of 2 quarter sections) 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 sections (0.25 sections / 5.5 sections) x 100 = 4.55%. This calculation may underestimate the percentage of gas that could be recovered as these two wells are close to the structural high of this pool and may have more reserves related to them than wells closer to the pool edges. Also it may only require 3 or 4 wells to drain this pool and then the percentage of production would be higher.

This being said I view this development as positive as it is the most concrete proposal to put this pool on production that I have heard since it was discovered. Remember there may be 10+ miles of sour gas pipeline to be built in order to connect gas to the gathering system for the Mezeppa Gas Plant. My quick read of this release says that Fortune will pick up all of these costs, the pipeline and deepening of the well. I believe these two wells are thought to be capable of 10-20mmcfd. At 29% H2S and $6.00C per 1000cf the gross cash flow before processing costs would be as follows for 10mmcfd:
10mmcfd x .71 = 7.1mmcfd / 1mcf ($6.0)=$42,600/d. On a monthly basis this pool could provide cash flow of from 1.3 to 2.6 million dollars, depending on production rates. Just a late night WAG. Regards.
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