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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 173.73-3.0%3:20 PM EST

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To: The Verve who wrote (96651)4/3/2001 12:28:20 PM
From: waverider  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
Yes, it is timing. And yes I am trying to time the market.

One of the givens the past 10 years is the ridicule market timers and traders recieved. "That's not investing, that's gambling!" Is was as if traders were lower than dirt.

Now the tables have turned.
The market humbles another batch of investor brilliance.

Verve, we ALL time the market. It is just what length of time we use. EVERYONE must decide when to buy and when to sell. LTB&H has worked for quite some time and has been a profitable default that covered up a lot of bad investment decsions. It no longer works. And if we do indeed enter a prolonged period of flatline, it will be more than a disappointment.

The facts to consider Verve are that when bubbles pop:

-the downside is at first swift and then prolonged.
-previous darling stocks rarely regain their luster.
-a new group of stocks will emerge and take over leadership once the bear rebalances both portfolios and egos.

No, I don't know when this will end. And no I don't fool myself into thinking I was smart to get out when I did. Maybe a little experience in the past convinced me sooner than it has others, but "smart" would have been a year to 6 months ago.

I feel so bad for the friends and stories of others I have heard who have been literally destoryed by all of this. In hindsight, not to have known was silly based on the history of the market. But that is the nature of the crowd...it always thinks it's special and will smash the opposition with its will.

The component of this that Sawtooth mentioned is quite clear. I so hope that QCOM will survive this, but history is not giving much encouragement. Yeah, as a company? Sure. As a profitable investment vehicle? Questionable.

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