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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.03+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (73989)4/3/2001 1:17:58 PM
From: Herschel Rubin  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Zeev, Agreed! Wonder if some of today's selling represents any of that selling to raise cash for tax liabilities as I had suggested. Of course, there are enough other negative factors to shake a stick at as well.

Interesting that the Chicago Fed mentioned today the likelihood that we are in a recession has risen, but the nation may very well steer clear of a serious economic downturn.

I wonder if they're priming the way for an intra-meeting rate cut, although I wouldn't do it if I were Greenspunk. Unless the "reverse wealth effect" becomes a significantly larger influence on consumer demand than many believe.

After the bulk of the earnings warnings are disclosed this week, we might see a sizeable relief rally from purely a technical standpoint.

Of course, fundamentals are giving NO positive signals, but IMO, this has been an over-reaction because there are so many deals out there right now. As the saying goes, "The darkest hour is just before dawn."

VIX is at 40 and TRIN is above 3, all of which are bullish. Shorting going into this week has proven to have been wise, but shorting as we approach the end of earnings warnings might be risky.
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