Ed, there is a reason nobody thinks long term about tech. That's because long term it is far from exciting, and likely downright depressing.
Tech companies of old, i.e. RCA, Zenith, IBM, Xerox, Wang, etc. either end up going out of business or in the case of IBM trade sideways for half a century.
One of these days people are going to figure out software isn't nearly as valuable as is currently thought, and the likes of Microsoft, Oracle, Novell, etc. will become boring sideways traders.
Another day people will realize makers of high tech gear like Cisco, 3Com, Juniper, Dell, etc. are really just old economy stocks in new economy dress. They will eventually trade at multiples like Philips, Sony, Panasonic, Magnavox, etc.
It was less than a decade ago that tech was in the toilet as an out of favor industry. After the wreck that's going on now wipes out many people's net worth then there is a great chance it will happen again.
I'm not really as tech bearish as the above would indicate, but thought I'd play the devil's advocate as I see some of the techies on these boards being too far to the other extreme. A balanced viewpoint is more valuable than one governed by irrational expectations. As in all things the truth will lie somewhere in the middle of the extremes.
Sharp |
