Well, John, let's do a thought experiment. If you have a website that tracks people's guesses as to how a stock will perform, would you go with the herd or bet contrarian? It's a tougher question than it seems, because your first thought will probably be mine, which is I am smarter than the masses, so I'll go contrarian. But then the doubts kick in, what if the masses create momentum in the stock which drives the stock up temporarily. So then you start to consider your real motivations as an investor. Am I a daytrader or am I a long term buy and holder. If I'm a daytrader, well, I may have a 50% chance of being right if I bet against the crowd. Or maybe the crowd is smarter than me and my chance is diminished. Or if I am a long termer, I may just buy the stock and to hell with what the crowd says, because I've done my fundamental analysis.
The bottom line is that you and I can justify all we want and say this so and so was right and that so and so was wrong. But in the end, we're all just making guesses here. No one is smarter than anyone else now. It's just blind luck either way. So in the face of crapola, I'm not changing strategy. I've done my homework and I'm sticking to my guns. It may take 5 years for me to get back to where I was in 3/2000, but who the hell cares. I'm way ahead of where I was 3 years ago, so I consider my self damn lucky. Beyond that, well, it's just money and life goes on. There are more important things. |
