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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: jmootx who wrote (74050)	4/3/2001 10:39:33 PM
From: gfs_1999	Read Replies (1) of 99985

jmootx, The strong dollar hurts trade, just look at the record trade deficit. We need to export our way out of this recession. Okey USA need to export, but Europe,Latin America,Asia also need to export. Brazil now import more than export to USA. So if USA change its trade policy it will hurt other contries. But let me know from you which stuffs can USA export without hurt other. Technology? Aeroespace and defense Guns, ........ The main problem today is commercial trade and laws. Let give you an exemple between Brazil and Canada . Brazil has airplanes made from Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) that are better and cheaper than Bombardier Canadian company. So when Canada company started to loss money due Embraer competition Canada started to find things to avoid Brazilian products like Meat saying that brazilian meat was bad due crazy cow deseases. Brazilian meat is 100% good because our cow eat natural food :-) not biotech food like europe. So coming back to dollar question I see that FED know that if dollar come down it could hurt a lot of countries. Other countries also could do the same thing with their currency value. We are in worldwide competition. So if your analysis is correct it is time to look for companies that export . Which sectors or companies do you thing could work if US start to export more than import? Also Dollar down => good for Large Cap and bad for Small Cap. Also when a country change its policy from Import less to Export more is a signal that he is in recession where citizens are not buying. Brazil last 4 year imported more than exported due 2 things ( 1st to hold inflation and 2nd to renew its industrial sector) But if Brazil start a slowdown the first thing to do will be increase export and cut import ( Brazil import more stuffs from USA than export) so USA export will be in troubles. So things are not so easy today ! You can't say USA dollar must go down for USA export more. USA trade deficit is helping other countries like Asia and Europe. Regards GFS

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