Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.51

+6.1%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (45001)	4/3/2001 11:54:54 PM
From: Jerome	of 70976

The volatility Factor.....Some math needs to be worked out.. As CSCO fell from 60 to 13 and other tech stocks fell from where ever to current levels, the volatility was all to the downside. Keep in mind that there were 48 points of volatility between 13 and 60, but only 13 points of volatility between 13 and 0. CSCO, ORCL, SENW, DELL and AMAT are not going to zero, so the volatility will have to decrease. A commonly mentioned scenario is that the comp stays where its at and enters a trading range. If this should happen then the volatility will almost disappear. A number of options players must have noticed that forward call premium has all but disappeared. If you bought CSCO today at 13 1/2 the April 15's were worth less than a point and the 12 1/2' were worth less than 2. How's that for a lack of confidence? J

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