Velo- I'm assuming that the bearish COMPX wave structure (Big 5 waves down)...counts Wave 1 (down) as the move from (approx.) 4160 to 2263, Wave 2 (corrective) from 2263 to 2894.....which would put us in a Wave 3 (down) from 2894 to the (intra-day) low of 1659...
Now, it doesnt' make any sense to me to use absolute numbers here...if so, COMPX would have to get to sub-1000 this go round, and would be negative after Wave 5 down <G>
So, I'm thinkin' you have to use percentages.......so, if Wave 1 (and I know I got the front number (4160) a bit wrong, but it should be close enough)....if Wave 1 (down) was 45.6%, Wave 2 (corrective) was approx. 28% up....Wave 3 is currently 42.6% down.......
That means that we still have a WAVE 4 up to come (of, what, between 25-30%?...don't corrective Waves 2 and 4 come pretty close to each other).....AND a Wave 5...which, I would think, would be AT LEAST equal to Wave 1 on % terms...
(Isn't Wave 3 usually the longest wave? If so, any guidlines on by how much- versus waves 1 and 5?)
Anyway, even if we say Wave 3 "bottomed" today, we would then be looking for a rally to around 2100 (Corrective Wave 4), and then another decline (Wave 5 down) to the 1150-1211 area....
(Note: However, if current Wave 3s is the LONGEST on a % basis, that would mean that this current down wave has more to go....at least another 100-150 COMPX pts.)....and corrective Wave 4 would get us to 1900-2000 COMPX, and the last Wave 5 down to close to 1000....
Am I in the ballpark here?
Is there any count that you know of that has the March-April 2000 Wave as the Wave 1 down? I don't see how that can make sense with the current wave structure....
(Btw- a failure in corrective Wave 4 in the 1900-2000 COMPX region- latter scenario- makes a lot of sense to me....it would remain below 90 COMPX channel, and psychologically important number of 2000)
Please let me know if/where I'm wrong here.. Thanks... |
