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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup
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To: JRI who wrote (14579)4/4/2001 7:04:20 AM
From: porchswing   of 37746
 
Forgive me, it has been a very long time since I studied Elliot wave theory in any depth ( and then it was not to deep) What I recall though is that wave theory was supposed to be more accurate over longer periods of time. One of the defining aspects of a wave was a more that crossed a major tend line generally, e.g. 50 day MA. If you assume this then a look at a chart of the QQQ and the 50 day moving average I see this as the 5th wave of this sell off.

Wave one being the initial move that broke the 50 day average in the down move from the end of March to the start of june 2000.

Wave 2 being the correction and resistance of the period from june 2000 to Sept 1 2000. ( there is a small breach of the 50 day average but it was quick and if i remember event driven)

Wave three is Sept 2000 to Jan 1 2000 the largest and longest wave ( hopefully)

Wave 4 being the corrective wave above (albeit barely) the 50 day resistance line from Jan to Feb

Wave 5 being this last down trend from Feb to now. The question of course is when and where we end this wave and complete the cycle. The nice thing about wave theory is you can redefine the waves to suit your purpose.

Assuming the QQQ and assuming wave 5 what do the "Trails in the Sand" tell you?

PS ( No "Trails in the Sand" does not refer to the book by Won Hung Lo with the preface written by Peter Dragon)
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