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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.18-0.5%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: stribe30 who wrote (34839)4/4/2001 4:26:19 PM
From: Joe NYCRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Buggi's AMD ASP page is excellent. I have seen this page before, but somehow I forgot about it. Here is the link again: www-public.tu-bs.de:8080/~y0005007/

Just download the latest Excel spreadsheet.

My comment is that as far as the latest data is concerned, JC's numbers are a lot more accurate than his API / German prices. His calculation of ASP for Athlon using JC's USA low prices is $154. This number is probably about 5 to 10% higher than what AMD actually gets, if the proportion of various speed grades listed by the vendors correlates with the sales.

I think there is a delay between what AMD sells and what the online vendors sell. And there is also inventory of old slow moving parts. This skews the data. AMD sells higher percentage of high speed parts today than what the spreadsheet shows. But this probably offsets the 5 to 10% mark-up, so the final ASP may be right on money.

Athlon ASP of $150 would mean a very good quarter for AMD, if the # of units is in the 3.5 million ballpark. It would represent $535 million, almost matching Q4 revenue of $567 for all processors.

Duron + K6 will add at least $100 million, $200 million being the most optimistic figure, so we could actually see a growth in the CPU revenue, rather than flat or worse as predicted.

Joe
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