WIND - just acquired two companies. If the bears punish them severely for that tomorrow it's another one I like.
On LU, like I said I sold mine at 12.88 and never said it doesn't have major problems. Very very tragic for our economy and for so many people who own it. But despite their lousy balance sheet, today's rumor was a dishonest manipulation by shorts. Criminal really. No bankrupcy is even possible for 2 years or so and then only if there's no improvement in the economy. Hell, they just closed a 5 billion dollar VZ deal. So buying on a false negative rumor could make you some money. LU buy at $5.50 back to $9 or at least $7.50. No big deal. Very possible. Had a 30% move today intra-day. And more likely back to $9 on a takeover rumor or rate cut than tanking below $5. The bankrupcy rumor was pure bunk and anyone who buys into it is a fool.
LOR is another tragic situation with bankrupcy rumors but liquidation value's 4-5 times the stock price now. Even got an upgrade today for that reason. A terrible choice of mine at $4-$7 but the book value's still there and ex-China their satellite business generates about twice the revenue per year than their market cap. About 1.2 billion I think.
I have a large buy order in at $1 if anyone's stupid enough to sell it to me for that price. Hope I get it.
Lower interest rates will help these companies re-structure debt and/or get acquired by someone else who can pick them up cheap. But what would LU or LOR sell for now? A lot higher than the current prices, at least triple these prices. Don't be surprised if both get bought out soon.
I own and like and holding EMC, VZ, SBC, FON, WCOM, GE and that's all (my whole portfolio) though I'd love some cheap ADBE or WIND if I can get them. Buy the winners cheap or the most beaten-down short victims super-super-super cheap when they are pounded into the ground and no one else will buy them. That's my strategy now.
Like everyone else I'm very cautious about buying techs now but will move whenever I believe there's been a total complete (at least short-term) over-reaction. Internet's still growing, growing and growing all over the world. Don't forget that. Crazy valuations last year but the surivors wil end up thriving. Longer term all the survivors who can turn it around are strong buys at these levels. (CSCO and SUNW at 13-14 for example). I'd bet against a world-wide depression and top damaged companies going bankrupt. On the contrary in 9-12 months with interest rates as low as 3% we'll all be wishing we'd sold the house and bought techs down here. Call me an optimist but don't deny I could be right. It's never so dark as right before dawn. Or another saying, "buy while there's blood in the streets". And boy is there blood now.
Just either have to be very quick or very patient right now. Still it's not for the faint of heart. And unfortunately almost everyone but shorts are faint of heart right now. So be cautious but just don't be short-sighted.
What will propel stocks back up now? Only gradual recovery or severe sudden losses by shorts, burning their britches badly. That's a job for Super Al Greenspan with an interim cut when no one expects it. Then another nice one in early May. He certainly must see the need for it now, and not just to save tech investors, but for the global economy as a whole.
I know I have my critics never would have predicted such a fall for some of these stocks, but I see ANF at 33 today and remember a year ago it was at 9. And almost nothing at all has changed. Just sentiment. So too will tech stocks someday be loved again and all this fear forgotten. It may take awhile but unless our leaders shipwreck us cheap money and digestion of the bad debt will gradually turn this around. Also remember that buying S+L stock during the debacle would have been the best investment of your lives. Well we're in a similar position now with techs. What's going to happen in the next few days? No idea, but longer term you got to love some of these bargains. Wish to hell I could afford to load up long-term. I know the smart money out there is, buying right into the peaks of the negativity.
There will be a huge list of tech stocks which will double or more within a year. I can say that with little doubt. |
