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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems

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To: Prognosticator who wrote (42721)4/5/2001 12:34:32 AM
From: QwikSand  Read Replies (3) of 64865
 
Those who think there is a pattern here are in for a big surprise.

Proggy, it should be pointed out that at least some of those who sensed a pattern here have already been proved correct. Their timing wasn't correct, but the observation that tech valuations had gotten so far out of whack that the necessary correction would be especially, even perhaps historically severe, were right, and there were plenty of them. They compared it to a variety of "last times" (to quote Galbraith, "the way all manias end.").

If you doubt there's "wisdom in waiting for an uptrend to begin" because that's reductionism of some kind, then you must think it possible that...what? Prices for stocks like SUNW are going to go back up as fast as they came down? You're cleverer than that. Or that an uptrend can begin only to quickly reverse? That would be similar to a bunch of "last times".

I don't see anybody saying there's a pattern that can be so easily timed that it's easy to get rich. The people who thought it was easy to get rich have either fallen silent or started foaming at the mouth. I just see these guys saying that markets oscillate around a mean, and that we're probably entering a crummy economic time, possibly very crummy. What's to argue?

--QS
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