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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 691.72

-0.1%

Jan 16 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (74026)	4/5/2001 12:59:36 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Re Possible Fed Action on/near Friday: I agree there's a possibility, perhaps 33%. Rationale: Both the S&P and Nasdaq are draining wealth from investors. Although the Fed doesn't want to act merely to rescue investors, it has indicated it will act if economic data reflect a negative impact from Market losses. I track Initial Claims for Unemployment to gauge the economy's performance, and there's been a divergence between ICU's and the Monthly Payroll stats recently, with ICU's showing an ever weakening labor market. This month's Employment Report may close that gap, with a report of little or no job growth. If it does, there's a good chance of .25 or .50 reduction in the Fed Funds rate. That, in turn, could spark a short term rally. With my sentiment indicators showing substantial bearishness, it might be worth a significant $ commitment on Thurs at the close, say 20% of $.

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