A reasonable post, all told. Investing, unfortunately, does carry some baggage of gambling when psychology becomes the primary mover of markets.
While your viewpoint is correct, psychology creates other issues. As WT posted, we could be in for trouble if there is a prolonged recession (doubtful). What is really the biggest issue is the IT spending. It may be in a tailspin now, but it can't stay in one for long. How long can you continue to use an underpowered PC or server? How long can you use the current software on it when the newest software is going to improve your productivity? These issues have become less relevant recently because the proposed gains from faster PCs and better software have not lived up to expectations...but at some point, they will become relevant again. Then the IT arms race will begin anew.
First, however, there needs to be consolidation. Companies with cash have to look for companies that represented severe competition, but are now in a less robust position, and purchase them at a reduced cost. I know of several companies doing just that.
From a corporate investment standpoint, this market is the best one any cash-rich company could hope for. That will eventually spill over into the investors' hands. |
