Hi Ron,
<<it just struck me as extremely risky for Jiang to stoke the fires of extreme nationalism>>
No, that has not happened yet and probably will not. Extreme is putting the crew on exhibit in the capital city, as opposed to having them chilling under palm trees in Hainan (pretty nice place) drinking Coca Cola.
<<when China's economic growth is so dependent on the $80 billion in exports to the US>>
This is where China and US seriously differ on score keeping ... US attributes all that is produced in China as originating in China, for trade deficit calculation. Much of those export depends on imported components and material, and what is actually 'China value add' may be 25-30% of that number. This is the magic of win win trade.
<<I assume they are going to keep the plane. That's pretty much a given. But I would have to ask how the Chinese would respond were the US to detain 24 of their people without being able to speak to their embassy staff? They'd throw a fit, just as they did with the Belgrade bombing (despite the fact that their retransmissions of Serb military communications from there is what put it on the US target list in the first place)>>
For that to happen, a Chinese spy plane will have to land in Hawaii first. A fit will be thrown, a comedy movie made, no doubt, not so much by China, and the big picture will not change one iota.
<<And now we see them interrogating these US folks today creating a further escalation, and denying them US representation from the embassy.>>
These folks are spies, not tourists.
<<I'm just having a hard time figuring out what they have to gain by escalation.>>
Gain by having sent a diplomatic message that says "think hard about what you do next".
<<since the US is getting the raw deal in all this because China gets to sell more to us than we sell to them, they risk making a "Made in China" label mighty scarce on these shores>>
It is not China does not buy from the US, it is more the case that the US does not sell to China. On cost, I believe 'cost' is not a concept relevant to Chinese geo-political thinking when it comes to Taiwan.
<<the military should realize that they only get the new toys for their boys so long as the Chinese economy remains vibrant>>
Since when is any military socio-economically smart?
The vibrancy is not actually dependent to as big a degree on export to the US as the US makes it out to be. That trade deficit number is seriously flawed.
<<I think you have some interesting thoughts on Chinese desire for gold. It would seem to suggest they don't trust the paper currency, or their economic prospects.>>
They do trust their economic prospects, and thus all the domestic investment and home purchasing, but do not trust any governments' promise to not debase the currency, RMB or US$.
Four thousand years of conditioning. They will not be able to help themselves when placed near deregulated monetary gold. That moment will be delicious, the panic will be inspiring, and world commodity markets will quake, marking the dawn of a new era. It will be the ultimate short squeeze.
Chugs, Jay |
