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To: freeus who wrote (12303)	4/5/2001 1:08:02 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) of 13572

Freeus, not sure I'd load the truck on CSCO at $14, but just trying to present a counterpoint to the "tech is dead and won't get up for 4-5 years because we are awash in gear" viewpoint (which has near-term validity, but the 4-5 years is absurd). I do concur with Mish that valuation metrics that take into account the fact that most tech earnings are highly variable will be healthy for the equity market in the long-term. If in fact most tech companies get repriced to "historical" P/E ratios, with the "E" based on recessionary earnings, this will be a tremendous opportunity, because most of the top dogs have the capability to deliver significantly increased earnings (from recession levels) once the capital goods buying cycle turns, which I think it will in 9-12 months. One of the big problems now with the tech sector is the degree to which the players trade with each other, versus with more traditional enterprises. So there's a classic "consumer confidence" meltdown going on within the sector, which is not nearly as severe with individual consumers and non-tech companies.

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