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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Adam Smith who wrote (13499)4/5/2001 1:41:37 PM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Adam Smith: I see. However, the methodology he is displaying has constantly failed despite the appearance of many daily instances of positive divergences since the NAZ 2800.

Do these other services you refer to compare current internals to the internals on the day of the first previous low ? Or do they compare to the internals on the last previous low made on huge volume ? I use the latter benchmark. Positive divergences depend upon the benchmark being compare to. It seems to me that no matter what benchmark was used the last six months, we've gotten new low after new low. Thus the market is not responding in accordance with past experience.

Also, it seems to me that while April 4 volume is lower than April 3, it's not materially lower. I don't see how very slightly lower volume is particularly meaningful as a sign that selling is drying up.

Summing up, I see a lot of noted telemetry in the post and a guy groping to figure out a proper interpretation of it. I'm not knocking the effort. I'm just saying it appears we are all groping in the dark to understand what has gone wrong, when will the turning point occur, and will any rally therefrom only be a temporary prelude to an even worse down draft during capitulation or the start of a new bull market.

FWIW

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