Amy, <<<RE: "My reading is it is more likely to refer to revenue for Itanium based system, rather than Itanium the processor itself. "
That's what I thought, but the report specifically stated "server processors", not "server systems."
Is the report wrong? >>>
I don't think the report is wrong.
My own back of the envelope estimate of the server (from factory revenues) market goes something like this:
Currently (2000) the entire server market is approximately $60B with the market projecting to grow by 14% per year. The year 2003 server market should reach $89B.
Currently the market is divided into 3 parts:
The high end, meaning mostly IBM S390 (G6, G7) type is about $16B of the market.
The medium end is made up mostly of the Unix (RISC) type processors (the sweet spot of the market) at about $30B.
The low end is where Intel and AMD slugs it out with NT type systems worth about $14B.
In 2003, IBM will retain most of the upper end with replacements and upgrades and revenues remaining flat.
The same goes for the medium end of the market, with Unix sales getting the replacement and upgrade business and revenues remaining flat.
Intel will probably lose some market share in the low end - splitting a $15B market with AMD.
IA64 will be a completely new category (overlapping all current markets) with $25B in revenues.
Unlike the low end where most of the revenue (60-80%) goes to the computer company (Dell, Compaq, IBM, HWP), most of the revenue in the IA64 market will go to Intel. My guess is 60 to 80% of revenues.
Mary |
