Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (5165)	4/5/2001 8:29:44 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (8) of 52237

You should remember the gamblers #1 rule, always quit while you're ahead. You may have gotten hooked on shorting techs and made a lot of money lately. If so then congrats but maybe it's time to cash out and take a breather. Trash-talking CSCO to single digits now doesn't seem realistic at all. It could easily re-trace to 25 now. You could lose a lot of money placing bets like that. Expect a sustained rally now in order to drive shorts out of business and get the sidelines cash back into the market. The big boys on Wall Street are pissed at short-trading gangs and see them as sheeps to be fleeced now, regardless of valuation arguments. Even Barton Biggs is bullish techs now. If YHOO can be upgraded today and DELL is doing fine then ask yourself what's next? Dozens of high-tech upgrades "at these prices"? That combined with two or more rate cuts and a gradually improving economy (inventory burn off already well underway, according to Apple almost finished), plus lay-offs and cost-cuttings and you could see an actual shortage of product soon which will end up giving CSCO and the rest greater margins on its sales. Cap spending could turn around on a dime. I predict it will this summer. The stocks are already down 75%. We could re-trace one third of that with even a hint of better news. The techs are that oversold. Plenty of buyers left for CSCO and the rest at these prices. Long-term investors who are going to hold for a long time too. I predict CSCO back to 30-35 within a year or so but would sell at 24 because I'm cautious. Therefore I assume we agree to disagree. My advice, wait until this and the next and the next rallies fizzle, if they do. Then consider shorting at a 20% higher level. But remember two rate cuts are likely between now and May 15 so those are big landmines for shorts. CSCO likely to $20 within a week. If not then it will be one of the few that doesn't make that kind of move. Frankly though I believe CSCO will be a leader. Though I prefer EMC.

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