I think this rally will fizzle, but I'm with the horsegirl that the next major one might not.
After all my semi-bullish long-term posting yesterday on the thread, but in view of S/T "worse as it gets price targets" I went out this afternoon and shorted GTW, IBM, NVDA, PRGN, BEAS, SHM, AVNX, and WCOM. Tight stops, most are for hedging/trades xcept GTW which I think is like a $5 stock.
Portfolio currently net 65% long, 35% short, no margin debt, no cash either. Still holding onto long positions in QCOM and ORCL established years ago, some NTAP and SUNW.
L/T still bullish on EXTR but I went 100% short against the box late today, which, as sheer luck would have it, turned out to be a good move.
There are more ARBA's and SCRM'ers in the woodpile, and until they are all flushed out, beware false prophets in bull's clothing. <g> I think there will be continued disappointments in the quarterly CC's w/r/t the near-term forward outlook.
We still haven't seen the low volume grinding boring days that likely will presage any "load the truck" days. Greg calls it base-building, I'd call it capitulation of both buyers and sellers, means the same thing. Valuations have yet to get ridiculously low, I think they will in the NAZ 1350-1500 range.
All IMHO, feel free to critique or take it FWIW. |
