Trading the markets..... Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Trading the markets.....

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: William H Huebl who wrote (4325)	4/5/2001 11:21:57 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 4583

Hi Bill, Not surprised with a divergence. The dow had the second best rise on record - in point terms. All markets are oversold to degrees not usually seen and in particular NEVER SEEN by the NAZ. We're in the final phases of closing out our March and it is better than Jan or Feb.The first QTR is a record for us!! Now we are in a growing market outside of Houston and energy prices no-doubt come home to roost in the capital of the oil patch. Needless to say just over a year ago when a barrel of gas was at 10.00 things got lean and mean. The times are good. The bloated vehicle inventories are back to below norms and now the big concern is can they ramp up production quick enough to satisfy demand. This will add to GDP in qtr # 2 and if they are slow to adjust add even more in Qtr # 3. Qtr # 4 could build up if telecom comes back. 2002 could have the benefit of whatever crumbs are returned to us by a tax relief package. All economists agree the sweet spot is 2nd H of 2001. 2002 we need to worry about AG tightening again and maybe this time even harder.Let's face it, an energy policy is just a concept that won't take place until the last 1/2 of the decade - and that might be optimistic. There are a lot of double bottoms in all indices from today.I'm not so dreamy eyed that I expect tomorrow to carry thru. There is however a good chance that shorts (being the clever ninble people they are) - realize staying short too long can get you slaughtered. I'm looking for sideways action and a rotating retest of lows (that really doesn'y hurt the indexes) but might shake out the last of nervous / weak holders sector by sector. Then we get a pop and all sectors join in. If you were in your luckiest mode there would be one last triple bottom that would impact only select sectors- just like Oct 7-15 was and you could scalp up perfect bottoms as the divergences grew. If and when the funds decide it is time to take positions - the float will be absorbed - and then greed will displace fear. Slowly at first and then the overhang will succomb to greed and off to the races we'll be. As that evolves even the poorly run companies, who allowed inventory to build in the face of declining sales, will be saved at the price of less profits for the year. Those that take off first will have the best annual profits and be tomorrows leaders. This slowdown was constructed. It will hurt those who don't practice good business or have poor business models.Those that are good conservative well run companies will rise to stardom. A stardom defined by performance not a sector membership.Profitable stock will supass story stocks. A resumption of sanity. A new confident peace I will embrace. JMHO Bob Always value your astute work! Thanks.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next