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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2843)4/5/2001 11:47:27 PM
From: Golf Pro6  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
KastelCo, just came across this thread and must say I am very interested in the discussion - my charts have been indicating for a long time now that there could be a major problem with the broader markets. The Dow and S+P both reflect undeniable parabola formations when you call up the 30 year "All Data" charts on Bigcharts.com, meaning there are only two possible directions from here: greatly up or greatly down. Given that scenario, I would have to bet 10:1 on a major downturn, especially given the fact that important corridor levels have been broken. On the other hand, I am not totally sure how valid linear charts are over such a long time period, as compared to logarithmic charts. Does anybody here have any information on this subject, or know a good site for logarithmic charts? BTW KastelCo, you made some very good points in your post, I personally don't think that all the ramifications of ludicrous vendor financing have yet to hit the fan. I personally know of at least one scenario where a company was being loaned money on a 3:1 basis ie. for every dollar they bought, they were loaned 3! I also identify with your comment on the real estate boom here in Toronto (I'm a fellow Torontonian), I remember well those days and the insane valuations. My parents bought a house in the late 70s and the price increased over 600% by the late 80s - talk about a great short!
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