SO- I totally agree...
Let me add one other intriguing scenario (Remember, traders should be "divergent thinkers"...able to keep 2 diametrically opposing arguments in mind at all times, while still able to function. I'm still working on that last part <G>)
Anyway, let's suppose today DID signify some sort of bottom....Who's to say that the BIG BOYS didn't get caught out by the gap (and were looking for the, ahem, "crap")...and have been caught by surprise. It happened on Jan. 3rd. So what happened hence? They brought the rally right back to where is started....shook the weak hands....so they could climb aboard....and THEN they took it to 2894 or so...
Given, today, likely you had massive hedge fund short-covering...surely, some got left in the dust...
So, I propose there is an alternate scenario (remember, I'm trying to maintain this divergence thing...)...That is, that we did hit bottom, but we need to go back ANYWAY (to the previous levels). Even more reason to feel comfortable w/upcoming down scenario.
BTW- I actually believe your line of thinking is correct, but the above is fun to play with....for, I simply can't believe the breakaway gap (this morning), "to the moon" Alice scenario....too much resistance overhead (as you stated)...and way too many bulls calling "bottom"...
BTW- I'm still feeling snuggly in my shorts (oops, too much information)...let's see if Friday changes that...I'll gladly bail if wrong.. |
