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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds
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To: Julius Wong who wrote (3630)4/6/2001 7:33:54 AM
From: Julius Wong  Read Replies (1) of 4916
 
New York, April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., admits he was wrong three months ago when he said the U.S. was in a recession. Now he says the recession will start this quarter.

``The preponderant thrust has been toward weakness and not toward strength, he said.

Roach said statistical ``wiggles'' helped the economy squeak through with one more quarter of expansion -- rising, by his estimate, 0.5 percent. Among the wiggles were stronger-than- expected auto sales, helped by warm weather and pricing incentives, he said.

The firm predicted gross domestic product will fall 1.4 percent in the current quarter and drop 0.8 percent in the third. The standard definition of a recession is two successive quarters of GDP decline. Roach says the odds are two-in-three in favor of his recession forecast.

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